
21st August 2001, 09:55 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 66
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Mark,
I apologise for being smart in recent posts, you are obviously not the fool I took you for and you enjoy success (as I do @ 50 hours per week however).
The problem is I can't get my head around how someone can be successful by brushing favourites indiscriminately. I'll give an example;
There is a field of 8. Favourite is 1/1 then the rest are 4/1, 8/1, 8/1, 10/1, 12/1, 12/1, 25/1; around 120%. Historically an evens favourite will will about 40% of races. Backing the rest of the field in a dutch book fashion would cost 70 units and return 60 based on this portion of the field winning 60% of races. Even if you obtain top fluctuations you would be flat out breaking even.
I rated Sunline 7/4 on Saturday and would have backed her at 2's although that was never likely. Some would argue that she doesn't win whether she starts at 2/1 or 20/1 for that matter. However that is one race on one day - it's a bigger picture than that. My belief is that if you bet on a good selection at odds above its chance of winning your work is done - the result is in the lap of the gods. Individual wins/losses are of little concern as you know that in the long run ( and for me that is about 1000 bets per year) the profits are almost guaranteed.
Cheers.
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