View Single Post
  #12  
Old 8th December 2010, 02:16 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,789
Wink

lomaca, since Sunday I have been testing/betting the CP alogorithym using multiple Win bets. I bet on average half the field in chosen races which I know many people say a profit cannot be made because there are too many selections.

However, since Sunday there have been 22 races for 16 winners which is only a very small sample. Using TAB divvies the POT is currently 8.7%, but I have been betting with Betfair's S.P which is currently producing a POT of 25.9%.

The divvies are so good that I would not be surprised that if after an acceptable period of time and an acceptable number of races the method shows a loss with the TAB but is profitable with Betfair's S.P.

In fact, my calculations with Betfair are not correct. For example, if I back 4 horses in the one race and I strike a $5 winner I now apply Betfair's deduction of 5% to the winner's price of $5.00. This comes to the winner paying $4.75 which I record, and translates to a profit of $0.75. Because I bet Betfair's minimum allowable bet of $5 this comes to a profit on the race of $3.95

However, the correct way to calculate the result is to multiply the $5 winner by 5 then deduct that bet's outlay of $5 which comes to $20, and then deduct the losing 3 bets totalling $15 which comes to a profit of $5. Betfair now deducts their 5% fee on the race's profit of $5 resulting in an overall profit of $4.75 as opposed to my recorded profit of $3.95.

I hope I haven't confused anyone with this, but my quoted $25.9% POT is in reality even higher. I use this incorrect method of calculating the profit because its more convenient.
Reply With Quote