Mr Magic
Your example is a race where I wouldn't bet. Fortunately the reality is that many races, again especially Sydney, get down to as low as 95%. Most average around 102 to 105%, BUT it's the place part of the bet where I make my money. Consider this; 6/4, 4/1, 6/1, 8/1, 14/1, 20/1, 50/1, 50/1, 100/1, & 100/1. 103% the win, but around 259% the place, that's some advantage when they need a book of 300% the place to break even. Take out the favourite & you've got 63% & 186%, take out the 4/1 pick & you're left with 43% & 136%. Something to think about there. How about this, 6/4, 6/4, 10/1, 10/1, 50/1, 50/1, 100/1 & 100/1. 104% the win & 227% the place. Leave out the fav's & you have 24% the win & 81% the place. Unfortunately these markets are rare & the bookies, to quote Don Scott "raise the white flag & bet win only". Ever wondered why they bet win only when there's an odds on fav?, it's because their place % has been destroyed.
Something I forgot to mention is that I did place an ad many months ago. Most people that contacted me wanted tips or were hoping for a get rich quick scheme. One bloke even said it wouldn't work, well I'm still going, and love track bias & the unpredictability of the Randwick goat track. Don't get me wrong, I work hard at the track, adding up prices as they fluctuate, and at first it was hard backing something at say 6/1 that I would have rated 100/1, or leaving out the 7/4 shot that I thought should have been evens, but you get used to it. The only thing for me that comes close to doing the form is that when I come across a horse that I think shouldn't fav then I have more on the others. Who knows, our discussion may help others in their quest for value, because that's what it's about.
Good Punting