19th December 2010, 10:10 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,601
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Michaelg,
Great work. I fully hope it continues for you. If its making a profit then you can't complain.
Betfair is great if you can snag a few longer priced winners. Anything over $15 will probably see you getting some sort of value in your selections.
In fact if you bet on all horses showing over $15 on betfair (in my database) you would have had : 39172 selections and returned somewhere between $33188 and $56303 after commission depending on what available price you took the bet. That ranges from a 16% loss to a 43% profit. It all depends on the price you obtain.
In fact applying just one filter to the above rule of $15+ on betfair will give you:
541 selections for a return of between $702 - $1963 ( the difference is the difference in odds offered to lay and bet). I always use the lower number when working on system ideas so in this case it would be a profit of 29%.
For only 2 rules : Price above $15 + 1 mystery rule you end up with a simple system that easily makes a profit on betfair but loses on the tote ( tote retun is a loss of 21% ). This shows there is a lot of value in longer selections on betfair.
Good Luck
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