19th December 2010, 12:02 PM
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,788
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Wesmip1, those are very interesting figures.
I would assume one of the filters is field size. The smaller the field then the lesser chance of a $15 winner, and also I would think that there is less scope for Betfair to satisfactorily outshine the TAB in the smaller fields.
I presume you've got your data from the Betfair website. Their figures are not totally accurate because a few years ago I checked it with a particular winner. The last traded price was higher than that shown on their site.
Betfair explained that if a horse's last traded price is $10, and all the availabe amount is taken, then they show its next available price. So a $9.80 winner shown on their site could in reality be $10, or even more. And the higher the winner's price the greater the possibility of this happening, and also with a greater discrepancy between their quoted and real prices.
So I would not be surprised if your $15-plus results would be even better in real betting.
I have no idea what will start at $15 or at any other price. The pre-post market is too unrealiable. Yesterday a single-priced winner was double odds in the p.p market, yet another winner was at single-odds yet paid about three times its p.p. price.
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