
24th December 2010, 11:05 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Qld
Posts: 1,392
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"Just got me thinking, if it was correct that you got 20% better long term, would I be correct in thinking that to be able to lay horses sucesfuly, you would need to be showing around a 30% LOT at TAB prices? I figure, markets run at 102% (give or take), plus you are offering 20% more than TAB, and then paying 5% comission as well which would with a 30% LOT at TAB, you should be showing a 3% POT laying?"
Lost me. Maybe I need some red as well.
Wes I believe your tables would be accurate and mean something, unfortunately I can't follow them.
For laying, if you lay at more than 100% you win, if less than 100% you can still win but take some risk. The trick is to lay the winner for less than your hold, and here's some advice wanted or not. ALWAYS put the fav in for something and 9 times out of 10 make it the worst result. Don't worry about comparing what the TABs or bookies are paying just concentrate on BF prices because ultimately (if laying) that is your only market. If you get it right, or that should be when you get it right, everything should show a profit. If forced to take a risk make it on the first 2 in the market (and/or the 3rd fav if it's short as well), the rest should always be winners.
This is what I was taught over 25 years ago by one of the bigger bookies of the day and it still works today.
Having said that, of course it's not the only way to win but is my preferred method.
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