Since I had a little free time yesterday I thought I would look at BLINKERS FIRST TIME runners at Melbourne Saturday meetings, dating back to start August 2010.

Interestingly, there were quiet a lot of runners (>50). I considered the race the horse was contesting as well as its previous race contested. I also looked at the number of starts from a spell, the horse's age/sex, jockey, trainer, distance of race and pre-post price.

Of the > 50 runners there were 9 winners.

Several things stood out:-

• Forget horses first or second up from a spell UNLESS the horse has had only one career start
• Horses contesting Group 1,2 or 3 races must have started in equal or better class race last start otherwise delete horse from contention
• Horses >= $21 in pre-post market can be ignored as well
• Horses staring in Maiden races last start must have won that race to still be considered, if not delete.

Putting these rules into place eliminated over 30 runners but only eliminated one winner a first starting 2yo. This turned the process into a very healthy profit. Where this would continue is problematical but it is certainly worth looking at eliminating the "dead wood" to get the main chances in whatever way we look at beating the race!

Maybe someone can look at other States to see if my observations work elsewhere. Good luck!