20th February 2004, 02:50 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Bendigo
Posts: 236
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I did lots of research on last start winners and on the QTAB Shaun. I don't have solid figures but I can tell you that last start winners are more reliable as placegetters than winners. Also, last start winners tend to be at short odds because everyone is on to them.
In fact, most horses that go to the track never win a race. Lots win only one race. Fewer win two in a row. Fewer still three in a row. And if they are recurrent winners they are then overbacked. So as a group I decided that last start winners were not good to target, except as placegetters. The stats will show that LSWs are reliable placegetters. With most horses their last start win was a peak and they drop off from there. Also, last start winner stats are absolutely conditioned by days since last start. To get any meaningful stats you need to consider how long ago was the last start.
The QTAB 100 raters are, however, an excellent target group. (Great work Sportz! I love simple systems based on free ratings!) You'll find that 100 raters priced between, say, $8 and $12 do very, very well unfiltered. All 100 raters, of course, have too many shorties among them to yeild a profit. My conclusion with 100 raters is that in most cases you need a price filter of some sort.
Try the third RadioTab selection when rated 100 and the only 100 in the race. Goes OK, usually at a decent price.
Hermes
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