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Old 30th January 2011, 12:05 AM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,601
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
What a c&*t of a day so far.

The system I'm trying just blew up in my face and this laying the neural system has already had at least 4 accidents. I got so ********ed off I've just shut down my bot and haven't even put it in simulation mode (which is very much unlike me). FFS!!!

I don't have much money left but it's back to the drawing board.

Without wanting to offend this is what 95% of punters do and is why they lose. You let the fear take hold. The problem here might be that you didn't plan properly. Assume you have $1000 in your account on betfair. How much are you willing to lose ? Whats your expected drawdown, Whats the expected losing streak ? How will your bank handle this ? What is a safe size to be betting ? etc, etc, etc.

For a $1000 account (from what I have seen posted here already) I would not lay to lose more then $2 a lay (as there is not enough history posted to compute the drawdown and expected losing streak). On a $100 account the liability would not want to be more then 20c.

If your going to bet a system you need to stick with it for a while and need to have the bank to handle these losses.

Most punters can not handle laying as it goes against their usual mindset. Big losses with small wins as opposed to Big wins and small losses.


Again not intending to offend, just trying to point out what I see. I was like this too ... This biggest advice I can give is commit to a method till you lose the amount you set to it. Setup a bank of $100 and lay $0.50 liabilities. Stick with whatever method you are using till you lose $50. It will take a while. While that is happening just keep looking for other methods to try. At worst you lose $50. If it works then you can start to up the stakes. Only test 1-2 methods at a time.

I wished someone told me this advice years go and I had listened.
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