Back on this issue ….. I do believe that a decent weight advantage can assist a lightly raced horse with untapped talent (doesn’t have to be a budding champion !) over the field ..... However ?! .....
How many times have we seen a race where two horses raced against each other in their previous run and front up again in a similar race. One horse has say a 3.5 kg weight advantage for a half length defeat by the winner….. only to see the same horse salute again !? Fitness, muscle, fat, the actual weight of the horse itself, best racing weight, the jockey’s weight, any lead weight carried ….. are all weight related issues, yet the concentration is on allocated weight.
I cannot get my head around the study of weight when there are so many more important factors.
“Having said that. Let me say this” ….. luv that ! Malcolm Fraser’s funniest line ever ! Delete 2yo, 3yo, WFA, set weights ….. and without me having ANY decent knowledge of ratings, class, value etc, I am of the opinion that the topweight in a handicap is usually at very good odds comparatively. Plenty of topweights have won the Melbourne Cup, spring class sprints, and your run of the mill handicaps. My theory, (which I believe in time will be up there with the best scientific theories known to man) is that these handicaps (excluding 2yo, 3yo, WFA and set weights) have a field of horses so well known that they can be assessed within an inch of their existence, and the weight, which I believe to be insignificant in most cases, is “overvalued” by the unwashed ….. thus pushing the price out. This is the EDGE !
Since reading a lot of posts here, I’ve browsed through many old form guides over recent times and have noticed the topweights (excluding 2yo, 3yo, WFA and set weights) were at decent odds. Some topweights with decent recent form have won at what I would describe as generous odds. And it pays better on the TAB which tells you that the unwashed have done their weight study ..... those damn fools !
So Rule Number One is the Topweight (excluding 2yo, 3yo, WFA and set weights)
Good ….. that’s only taken 38 years of punting to set that in stone !
Now for Rule No. 2 …………………………………
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