darkydog, this is not well researched at all, just an observation from reading 5+ years worth of form guides I have at my disposal. The better ones seem to be 3 starts plus. It has thrown up some decent winners, but the rule of increasing in distance cuts out a few decent longshot winners.

I'm sure it could be the start of a decent system.

At the moment I'm finishing rules to select a stable.

Have you looked into the proposition that a horses SR taken at a certain point in time will decrease at a rate of about 15% in the future, (obviously with a couple of filters.)

So, 25% SR now (with filters) will become 20% (approx) over the next few years.

It's as reliable as the favourite winning 30% of the time.