Barny, there is a reason why most serious punters only look at the last three runs of a horse,while at the same time taking notice of (but not being blinded by) the past performance.

Just as you said "I'm declining with age" horses do that too, but the opposite is also true! (provided you are young enough)

I'm a great believer in betting on first up horses over short distances, but the first up record HAS to be recent! Most form guides only tell you the number of first up starts and the outcome.

Could have happened 5 years ago!!
Jeeez, five years ago I could see my toes!

Good luck