How about this:

hi all,

Anybody with a system or ratings, who has had a sufficient nos of bets (say 200>) who wishes to know the approximate numbers of outs that'll occur during a certain bet period, just post your s/rate on the forum and i'll give you a reply based on between 1-10,000 bets.

As fav's win 30% approx of all races here's the approximate run of outs one would possibly expect with a 30% s/rate: bets=1-10(outs=4.5), bets=11-100(outs=10.7), bets=101-1,000, (outs=16.9), bets=1001-10,000(outs=23.1).

Pretty sobering stuff isn't it.

It's good for me when going through a run of outs to look up my s/rate then the probable run of outs and gain some satisfaction that this a normal occurrence for my system not the system needs to be turfed in the bin (YET).

Source of these s/rates is "Mathematics for the Punter" written by the turf accountant for PUNTERS CHOICE. As honest and unbiased organization i know of for any doubters out there.

cheers garyf