22nd February 2011, 06:53 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,601
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by YoungBuck
I've been following this thread with great interest. Wesmip has always has been worth listening to IMO.
Speaking of various filters I have been playing around with a lay system which revolves around Days Since Last Win (DLW). Looking at it through R&S.
1. 300+ Days since last win
2. Horse API is lower than race API
3. ??
4. ??
5. Betfair price is under $8 but not starting favourite.
I've left a couple of rules to myself but results since Jan 1st are:
| Ave Odds: | $6.30 | | Selections | 97 | | Losers: | 88 | | % | 91% |
Would be interested to here thoughts on this one and possible suggestions. (sorry if this is thread hijack) |
I have you with a (1 - 9/97)-(9/97*6.3) = 0.90 - 0.58 = 0.32 positive expectation.
That means before commissions you are getting 0.32 for every dollar staked long term.
If it holds up over more bets its a pretty good system. |