Can I just add my two bob's worth to the backfitting debate?
I came up with a longshot system that actually works (so far anyway) and is in profit to the tune of $199.1 for the calendar year after 1135 x $1 bets. i.e. POT approx 17.5%. I do have further data going back a few weeks of last year; not to hand but very similar S/R & POT.
On examination of my records today I noticed that 89 bets on system selections having their first start where they were the only first starter in the race produced a return of $120, whereas 207 bets on horses having their first start where there were more that one such horse in a race produced just a single win ($27.7).
I will not be betting betting these horses in future. Will that be backfitting or is it just sensible tweaking in the light of empirical evidence?
Regards
Ron