
27th February 2011, 12:51 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,601
|
|
If your average ods were 30 then we would expet 1/30*1135 as expected winners = 37.83
So based on your 1135 bets chance alone (ie I pick a random selections at $30) would have hit approx 37 winners. As this is an imprecise science there is some leeway on the actual number of winners that chance could have hit (maybe 30 or maybe 50) but as more selections come in the closer to the mean would occur (which is 3.3% strike rate). In order to decide whether a system is better then chance (and thus will get a profit) you need a much higher strike rate then chance allows (based on the odds).
You can do a chi-squared test to work out the impact chance had on the results but without the real odds for each selections its not really worth going down to that level.
Hope that explains it.
|