7th March 2011, 11:04 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,601
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by lomaca
"DS highest rating selection you lose 16% on unitab"
Ok, so lets deduct the 14% (being generous) for Unitab, we lose 2%.
I do not know how much better Betfair prices are but lets say better by 4%.
Now we are up by 2%, BUT remember we are betting on every race!
Deduct the Max 5% for Betfair and we lose 3% betting on every race!!!
Suddenly 3% doesn't sound too bad does it?
And I'm being generous here with the difference in prices obtained.
I'm yet to see any rating, paid for or not, or selection method, that will return a profit by betting on every race every day every meeting!
Now, if a punter cannot find some races that he/she can leave out,
(filters) then that punter had better find an other hobby.
Basket weaving sounds nice.
|
I hate making assumptions on what the betfair price will be so here are the real figures. If you used betfair and I will assume worst commission ate of 5% , you would get a 1.4% loss.
Assuming you removed all those starting in barriers 1-4 you get a 2.6% profit.
Or maybe you only bet on those which are top unitab rating and you get a 2.4% profit.
Or maybe those who have had 20 or less career starts for a profit of 1.7%.
Combine the top 2 (barrier 5 or wider + top unitab rating) and you get a 4.4% profit. My data only goes back 5 months for DS so you get approx 300 bets a month with these filters.
|