Hi Equine Investor,
First of all, I'm purely and simply a recreational punter. It's a pleasant and relaxing diversion from the conventions of daily business that consume most of my time during the week. The restraints of time have a great bearing on the type of punting I do. Hence the one-bet-a-day approach.

My method (and I call it that loosely) is one that merges both the mechanical (ie a systems/statistical filter) approach and the intuitive (guess/hunch/gut feel) slant. So, it can be difficult to define or describe to others. Much of what steers me towards a particular horse is borne out of personal bias gleaned from years of getting it wrong and just occasionally getting it right.

The factors that I generally DON'T consider in filtering down to my final selection are:
JOCKEYS. BARRIERS. TIMES. WEIGHTS. TRAINERS.

The factors that I generally do give a good deal of consideration to in the process are:
FITNESS (eg recency of latest start/s) and PAST PATTERNS.
CONSISTENCY (eg place strike rate over career).
RECENT FORM (Doesn't always have to be winning form but is often a win or a margin within 2 lengths of the winner, or a reasonable run in tougher field/class).
CLASS (gauged by both the class types of recent runs and also its average prizemoney relative to the rest of the field).
DISTANCE ABILITY (sometimes predicted by place strike rate at or near today's distance).

I also make an effort to find (ie guess) the right meetings/tracks for the day and, even more importantly, the right races. Anyway, I usually end up with a short list from which the intuitive side of me kicks in and prompts the day's selection. The whole procedure may take me around 40 to 60 minutes scanning 2 or 3 meetings. It is definitely not an exact science nor anything resembling an exhaustive analysis. What it is, though, is a challenge and an opportunity for a lot of fun and interest.

The great thing about racing and punting, I think, is that one can be wrong the majority of the time and still come out in front or, at least, retain the optimism to do so. And it can be an extraordinarily cheap and accessible form of entertainment.

But as to your question, the reasons for Randwick R8 No1 CONTENDER: With both figures and hunches, as referred to above, I believed it to be a GENUINE CONTENDER! (As it eventuated, Contender didn't quite share the same belief - it ran third!) I hope I haven't been too vague or appeared evasive. It's just that every bet has its own background, and my "reasoning" sometimes defies due explanation.

All the best of good fortune to you, Equine Investor, and also to the other forumites.

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