22nd March 2011, 06:23 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,601
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Dale
Wes,
Not understanding the maths involved i was wondering if those findings are in any way objective?
I mean i dont dispute the formulas just the suggested outcomes proportioning a percentage to either chance or edge.
From your experience have you seen a 75% chance swing to a strong edge% or vice versa,does it really come down to the more history the more likely a percentage favoring edge?
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Well they are as objective as you can get in this analysis. They are based on the odds obtained and odds are subjective. But as far the analysis it is usually a good guide on when to start betting. I only bet systems that have less then half a percent due to luck (and are not backfitted ... ie tested over real bets).
Its all to do with probability and some more advanced topics on it. I beleive using the analysis I do is the correct way to know when to bet a system.
The answer to your last thing is if you do have an edge the more bets you have the lower the % chance plays a role. So you would normally see a system sit at 100% chance to start with and slowly move away to be pure edge. As I said half a percent chance is the right time to start betting. before that you should collect more data.
Hope that helps. If you ever want a system analysed make sure you keep your stats for me (every odd on every horse win or lose).
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