Stugots,

I ran those numbers and came up with a 10.1906% chance that the result is due to luck. This is an almost 90% chance that the result is due to an edge. These numbers are only relevant if the numbers you have provided are on real bets and not on a back fitted system. Back fitting will always tend to give a lower result.

Do you mind if I ask if this is betfair or tote prices ? If they are betfair prices have you taken into account commission at your level (2%-5%).

Another 6000 bets and a similar 1/price and actual winners would reduce it to a 2% chance that luck is the reason you are showing a profit.

Another way to analyse these figures is to check the standard deviation of the results lumped into 100 bets. You have enough selections there. You would have 60 data points and this should produce a nice distriubution. This is very useful in analysing your risk. If its not showing a nice bell curve (or close to one) then I would be worried and not betting the selections.

For others who do not have 6000 bets I would suggest using 20 or 50 bets. This can easily be plotted and you should see a bell curve as a result. You will be able to see your edge pretty quickly doing this as the peak of the curve should be to the right of 0.

Hope that gives a little bit of insight on one way to anaalyse a system.

There are another few tests I would consider still but I need access to your data to do these and thats not possible. But they include a number of advanced tests.

I think the information above on plotting the distribution is pure gold. How many people actuall start doing that is probably 1% of the people who read it. If you are the 1% then i wish you luck, by doing this you will learn more about your system/rating, probability and how to be a winner then you will ever imagine.