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Old 23rd March 2011, 08:47 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2005
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I redid the chart as something I could understand but used your figures.


I like plotting the distribution as it makes it easy to see the issues. The way I plotted your data Cols G and H as a scatter plot with smooth lines connecting them .

Looking at it I am slightly worried in the distribution on the losing side. It looks like it needs a few more data points to smooth that out. The problem you have at the moment is the tail on the positive side is much higher then the negative side. I would question why this is the case and what I find is this occurs with backfitted systems (not saying yours is). You will at some point have the same losses on the negative side and these are seriously going to dent any of your profits.

At this stage with the 10% chance due to luck and the distribution I would put this into a 3 month watch period. I might even bet it with small stakes but I wouldn't be betting a large amount on the selections just yet.

This isn't probably what you wanted to hear but it might save you a few dollars in the long run. More data will definitely help though.
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