Hi New Punter,

Thanks for sharing your ideas and good luck on your punting adventure!!

Some of the initial system rules you have are sound, for instance starting at horses with a 30% strike rate will ensure that you are backing horses that can win and have proven so in the past.

Look for when these horses are likely to peak. Some perform first-up and then go backwards in their preparation, others need 3 or 4 runs to reach peak fitness.

Winning margin of 2.5 lengths
This can be a result of many factors:
- A super fast pace upfront, with the winning horse settling near the rear and sailing past with ease as the rest of the field capitulated.
- A heavy track with the winning horse the only one to really handle it etc.

You need to ascertain whether the horse can repeat the effort. E.g. did it carry 52kg and is now up 6 kilos to 58kg? Is the horse consistent? Have they now put an apprentice on after a senior jockey rode last start? Was this win out of character?
These and many other factors come into play. Easy right......

Track and Distance
I like to back horses that are coming back to their preferred track and/or distance after putting in what appears to be a lacklustre performance elsewhere, thus trying to gain some value.

Case in Point, SHOCKING in the Australian Cup 2 weeks ago.
Ran 2 seemingly ordinary races at Caulfield, before returning to his favourite track Flemington, with it's long straight and wider cambers. Improved lengths and lengths and this Melbourne Cup winner, who had won over 1600m in the Spring at the same track, went off at over $8 and duly got the chocolates. Having a little faith can reap rewards.

Don't expect horses to be robots
Ever woken up and been in a terrible mood all day and not performed to your best (most Mondays - ha ha) this happens to horses. They have bad days, simple as that. In saying that, jockeys have bad days also, but don't get me started .....


Trainer jockey combos
There are some potent combinations about that just about break even or make a profit backing all selections:
Nash Rawiller/Gai Waterhouse
Peter Moody/Luke Nolen
Paul Harvey/Lyndsay Smith
Joe Pride/Hugh Bowman

In conclusion, GENERALLY, the harder you work and the more selective you are, the luckier/richer you will get. There's literally a million ways to assess the form and for me there's no greater thrill than deciphering a race to perfection and watching it all play out as predicted.

Hope this is of some assistance and Best of Luck.

The Schmile