
26th February 2004, 06:29 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: geeveston
Posts: 702
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no problems discussing.
i dont think interpretations of any system makes a lot of difference to anyone else.
due to the fact we could all look at a 10 horse race and come up with 8 different winners due to our selection processes.
back to the question.
i have published on here a study i did over a 16 month period from newpaper results (manually) till i got sick of doing it.
they were. of about 1200 prequalified listed horses that won races over the period, yes there are a lot of winners but then again a lot of starters.
33% had qualified in the past 8 weeks prior to them winning.
80% had qualified in the previous 12 months 95% 24 months only 5% of them were longer than two years since qualifying.
which emphasises that current form is good form.
longshots come from anywhere - recently we were discussing dedicated miss paying $48 it qualified last start(previous).
i recall luther winning in sydney a couple of years ago he had qualified the start before (started 80/1).
when toledo won the manikato it had qualified two starts previously.
piavonic beat sunline at 45/1 after qualifying at group 2 previous start (leap of faith)
i know people will say i am being selective in quoting the above so i shouldnt do it.
on saturday ski the tide our fabio and fires of ireland all qualified last start using the higher prizemoney theory.
i had qualified them and backed them.
i guess to answer your question most recent qualifiers is a good term to use and have some faith.
in ascot on saturday spirit lady qualified two starts previously and won at 12/1.
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