31st March 2011, 07:55 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,091
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Maybe start from the bottom up, coz these will usually be overlooked ?~! I’m looking for a DECENT reason the BELIEVE that a horse (any horse) is about to run it’s best race. It may be a 4 y/o who has had 3 runs this time in ….. it’s second start may have shown it was caught wide, or suffered interference (forget weight analysis !!!), and it’s third start it may have led and weakened. Gotta use judgement to assess whether this is THE RUN !!
Seems to me to be easier to look at the card and search for a horse approaching it’s peak, and back it for a couple of runs. I’m NOT LOOKING for a horse that flashed home in a 1200 metre at Sale then goes to Metro at 1400 ….. It’s there for all to see !! ….. and probs wont win anyway. I’m looking for a horse that was unlucky at Sale (or where ever) over 1200 and goes to Metro at 1400. I’m looking for an improver, one who is about to reach peak fitness, with HIDDEN / OVERLOOKED “form / excuses” ….. judgement used on a horse that’s maybe got a lot of improvement in it due to it’s number of starts or a “heads up” because of what fields it was put in last prep.
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