Hi Gary,
Interesting point you raise, however the mug money is almost always levelled by the smart money.
As an example, you see a lot of mug money go on certain horses and then the smart money comes in and adjusts the prices accordingly. I'm not sure about the IAS signals, as I think they might just be a bit of a red herring based on a comparison of the bets they say they took and the actual bookie ring fluctuations.
In the bookie ring the price usually blows out from the opening price before being snapped up and crunched in by the overall smart money.
I did a bit of a study on the "phenomenon" to see whether these movements were herd mentality or in reality "smart money". The results were astounding.
Given that we can't get Top Fluctuation after betting has started, I ignored top fluctuation prices and looked at other prices available.
To qualify, the final bookie price had to be less than the opening price on course.
921 of these movements were recorded.
Backing all movers that qualified (including 2 or 3 in each race where applicable).
NSWTAB 3.89% profit
SuperTab 5.70% profit
UNiTAB 2.93% profit
Best Tote 10.73% profit
Best Tote and SP 11.33% profit
This is without any other filters.
The real smarties who are "in the know" and take Top Fluctuation early, thereby somewhat driving market movements earn themselves a cool 16.13% return at Top Fluctuation.
The conclusion...
There is a lot of mug money, but the weight of the smart money overcomes the tab takeout on all three totes.
Therefore the smart money is dead on
