Barny, excellent post.

Couple of points for your comment.

(a) Perhaps consider 3, 4, and 5th runs from a spell, rather than runs 4 & 5

(b) you indicated that the shorter races are harder to assess. Maybe so, but I would run your system with maybe 1400's and 1600's only because I believe races over this become farcical in their tempo with dodgy outcomes!

(c) you said that course and distance have a negative impact on POT. Are you saying that the horse for consideration should have form at the distance and/or track.

(d) do you give any weighting to on pace runners?

Thanks for any replies