25th April 2011, 01:23 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,091
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thanks peakster
Couple of points for your comment.
(a) Perhaps consider 3, 4, and 5th runs from a spell, rather than runs 4 & 5
I cannot find a logical improver 3rd up. It’s too early for any sort of pattern, no matter how subtle that pattern is I’m looking for, to say “This is the race!”
(b) you indicated that the shorter races are harder to assess. Maybe so, but I would run your system with maybe 1400's and 1600's only because I believe races over this become farcical in their tempo with dodgy outcomes!
A lot of the improvers win at longer than 1600. I see where you’re coming from, and prior to this forum, I had a 4th up system LSW that performed best at exactly 1400.
(c) you said that course and distance have a negative impact on POT. Are you saying that the horse for consideration should have form at the distance and/or track.
I like leaving out C/D because I think that the POT is reduced by more than the advantage the horse has over C/D next to it’s name.
(d) do you give any weighting to on pace runners?
I like on-pace runners but no. I want this system to look for the subtleties, those bits of information that don’t jump off the page at you. I want to “see” what the trainer is doing, and leave it up to him / her.
Thanks for any replies
The dumb bit I did put in was to give the nag a couple of runs ….. scratch that !
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