27th April 2011, 04:08 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,091
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job123, clearly my incoherent psychobabble masquerading as a post of substance is not for everyone. As I’ve mentioned previously I had the very great pleasure of reading almost all the posts here and I’m only too aware that some of our posters are quite partial to a tipple or seventeen …. It’s those souls who would have understood perfectly the message I was trying to convey. I hadn’t thought about directing my posts to the temperate in our society, because that’s not the circle I move in.
Back to the Bottler of a System …… It’s aimed at trying to find when a horse is about to run it’s best race this time up. Simple concept really, and takes out all those mind numbing factors for consideration such as weight, distance, CD, jockey, gear changes, track condition and so on ….. thought I’d leave that up to the trainer. So we do grab the horse at it’s absolute peak ….. is it guaranteed to win ? Certainly not !
I’m relying on the trainer to select a race where his / her horse, at it’s peak would have a decent chance. All we have to ascertain is when that horse reaches it’s peak and is ready to run the best race this time up. First up ….. we don’t have any data to evaluate. Second up ….. we only have the first up run and there one piece of data doesn’t provide a pattern. Third up ….. dunno. Fourth up ….. This is where we can pick up the subtlety of preparing a horse for a win and look for an edge. The horse may have had it’s third run on a slow track then had a 20 odd day break. I’m led to believe that this is a tactic sometimes used to get a horse fit. If we stick to fourth & fifth up we are only concentrating on identifying those horses that may be about to run the best race this preparation. This is not a selection method to pick out the class horse (whatever that is!), an up and comer, a certainty beaten last start, a value bet and so on. It’s simply to pick a horse that hasn’t won this time in ….. and is due to win ….. and is ready to run at it’s best this time in (regardless of whether it’s getting older and not racing as it once was).
So job123, thanks for pointing out my shortcomings ….. I’ll add them to drinking to much and passing gas at the most inopportune moment !
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