29th April 2011, 01:15 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 335
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Silver_and_sand
You have to think like the trainer/owners. For instance, if a horse wins a $200,000 race, and then it's next race it's racing for $40,000, when it could have entered a race of similar distance for $250,000, then that's a big hint that the trainer thinks the horse isn't at it's best, and isn't willing to risk paying the higher fees to enter a race with higher prizemoney on offer. Too often, you'll see that being touted as the "class horse" in the race, just because it won a big race in it's last effort, and is now racing in a much lower class race. It will be always be overbet, and possibly be an odds-on favourite, and will often be beaten by a longshot...
|
It didn't take long to prove the point. Ipswich Race 1 Susashi. The horse came 2nd in a $50,000 Metro Open race in it's 1st race. That's a great effort, but if the trainer still had faith in it, then why is he racing it now in a $10,000 maiden in Ipswich. Sure enough it would have been perceived as the "class horse" in the race just because it ran 2nd in Metro Open race and started at $1.80. I bet the trainer didn't have any money on it for it to win. And it ran like a maiden horse, finishing 6th in a field of 12. Again, you will do well to avoid horses that are racing for less prizemoney than their last start, because they'll be overbet and there'll be a reason why they're racing for less money.
__________________
...time held me green and dying, though I sang in my chains like the sea. - Dylan Thomas
|