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Old 30th April 2011, 10:00 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
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Betting to Liability is great ,it is one of the the safest approaches to use.
Sometimes called betting to odds.
It also makes the least profit.

Level stakes makes the most profit , but can be the most dangerous.

Another way of bet calculation is Betting to Price
Price divided into take out amount & the difference is our profit.
It has the ability to recover faster if bitten by a short priced conveyances.

It also has the advantage that it is spreading the days book value , out more evenly so percentage wise the lower priced runners don't quite have so much put on them, than say betting to odds, like betting to liability would normally do.

It is said that that betting to price reflects more like a Bookies book except its spread over different events.

Example No.1
BTP (Betting to Price)
10.00 / $1.60 (.60/1 odds on) = O/L 6.25
If unsuccessful , lose -3.75

BTO (Betting to Odds)
10.00/ .60/1 odds on ($1.60) = O/L 16.66
If unsuccessful , lose -10.00

This works out the same percentage in this exercise , but the difference is seen when multiple horses are selected in the same race with various prices.
That's where one will see the percentage difference kick in.

The main advantage betting to price, is that it is easier to recover from losses, especially if we get bit by any odds-on & general short prices shots.
Due to the outlays being dramatically lower on short prices & much the same on the higher prices.
In effect , it spreads the Liability out more & you have a greater chance of recovering in a timely manner if selections are OK.

When doing Lay betting , one has to think in terms of Liabilty at all times.

Example No.2
BTPrice
10.00 / $20.00 = O/L .50

BTOdds
10.00 / 19/1 = O/L .52
So one can see that there is little difference in this price range.
Its the shorter price range that has the huge gap in liability.(Risk) with these 2 approaches.

If both price ranges, in above example were unsuccessful, the combined loss would have been.
BTP
3.75 + .50 = -4.25

.50 goes into 3.75 = 7.50 times
The long shots have the feel of more value to recover the loss with less bets.


BTO
10.00 + .52= -10.52

.52 goes into 10.00 = 19.20 times
Its going to be a long climb up hill relying on long shots to recover this loss

There is a massive difference of 168% in Liability to recover here.
Its telling us that it is relying heavily on the short prices to fall over & the long price selection returns would be viewed as "chump change " in comparison.
I effect , the short prices are being over bet.

Its the same problem seen in Win only betting where the short priced Favs are often over bet.

So
BTP would be the stronger of the 2 approaches to use because recovery would be smother because there is less over betting on the short prices compared to long prices.



Remember:
The lower the Liability exposure , the greater the chance of making profit on a consistent basis
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