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Old 30th April 2011, 03:40 PM
beton beton is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 589
Default unders and overs

I am looking at the first 5 favorites. If you are betting all races each favorite in its own bank on the tote would lose. Betting the tote is always counter productive. If the favorite's tote price was $2, it would actually need $2.10 to break even. Strike rate 40.42%. If the favorite's tote price was $2.50 (34.42%) it would need $2.47 to break even. If the favorite was $3 (28.72%) then It would need $2.96 to break even. If the fav was $3.50 (24.71%) then it would need to have $3.44 to break even. At $4 (21.08%) you need $4.04 to break even. This is using my database of 43691 races.

I dug a little further $2.20 needs $2.27 and $2.30 Needs $2.25

If you could follow the tote and place on betfair at even 10% better you would have to be up long term.
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