51 x 1 unit bets

for

18 collects (winners)

at

$3.08 to $1 or $4.08 average odds of your winners,

indicate that as it stands at present you have a 14.28% advantage over the Tote / Bookies and according to the Kelly Criterion this is the percentage of your bank you should bet every time to maximise your profit!

However, I wouldn't recommend that course of action, because if, and it will, (maybe it already has) a run of 7 outs in a row comes along, your bank will have been wiped out!

You seem to be on the right track, but I would be waiting for a much bigger sample, say 500 or even 1,000 theoretical bets to get more reliable data.

Good luck,

Gerry