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2nd May 2011, 10:22 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 589
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Hi Guys
I just spent the day analysing my data breakdown. Each ranked horse is put against the favorite win odds. I am looking at every race as a contender with the favorite's odds as the precurser to selection and the price as the only other filter for the 2-3-4-5 & 6th Fav. With the FWO (favorite win odds) =<$2 you would have to be a wise person to participate. The Fav at these odds are actually underbet but still give a negative return. The other runners can produce a return IF YOU GET THE ODDS REQUIRED. Better just to look, there are still 86% of the races to consider.
With the second fav you can start betting at =>$2.00 FWO but you should stop at $3 FWO. The 2nd favs s/r reflects the Fav's s/r and goes downhill together with the fav after $3. The key is there is a minimum price you should accept and a optimum price range.
The 3rd fav's betting starts at =>$2.50 FWO and continues to $4.70 FWO when there becomes no point continuing. There are only about 3% of races beyond this point anyway. In these races the public has said for once the handicapper has got it right and it is any horse's race. Again you muust get a minimum price or no bet.
The 4-5 and 6th fav can start when the FWO odds are=>$3 and continue over all remaining races. Again there is a minimum price and an optimum price.
This has been based on tote prices. Does Betfair prices for the fav reflect that of the tote within reason?
What bot would be best to test this?
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