4th May 2011, 06:08 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,091
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I've got a great system
Topweight
LSW
Fav
Barrier one
Topweight wins 15% of the time
LSW wins 15% of the time
Fav’s win 30% of the time
Barrier one wins 10% of the time
Let’s start with the topweight first and try to work out what impact a LSW will have on the 15% SR of the Topweight. Should it improve the topweight’s SR by 15% or part thereof ?? Well yes it should. We need to find out what % of LSW were included in the winning topweight figure as a % of overall LSW / topweight combination.
Let’s assume the following % of LSW, Fav’s and Barrier one are incorporated into the 15% SR of the topweight.- LSW – say 20% of all LSW are topweights = 15% x 20% = 3% added to the topweights chances.
- Fav’s – say 20% of all Fav’s are topweights = 30% x 20% = 6% added to the topweights chances.
- Barrier one – 10% of all barrier one are topweights = 10% x 10% = 1% added to the topweights chances.
So the Topweight as a LSW and Fav drawn in barrier one will win 25% of the time.
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