Mattio
sorry for not replying sooner. Tied up. I cannot test by race. The database that I have has winners by rank compared with the first ranked price to the variables of field, track, distance and weather. The criteria thought to be pertinant at the time it was made.
Do you lay the short fav in the first race? I had a quick look when we going over the 3rd fav in six system. I posted the follwing based on less than a months races.
" ocho
hi
It gets better.
I was looking at whether to miss the races with short favs = or<$2. So far 20 favs (27%) have saluted (WA Tab) There has been 14 favs = or <$2. Only 6 (43%) of these have gotten over the line. More importantly the 3rd fav has saluted 5 times when the fav has been less than even.

Should we miss short fav races? NO WAY"
In that format even at =<$1.50 where up to 70% of the favs should be winning, there were a marked discrepency.
My take is that the first races are generally filler races usually maidens. The fav is usually the horse that has run before and has a form figure against it's name. Habit make people go with something they recognise. The rest follow in their herding nature. How can you know if something that is untried or has failed before beat something similar, which is the essence of a maiden?

Would I lay the short fav in the first? I would at =>$1.50. I would do at least one of trialling to go shorter.

Like everything you should always do your own research. Beton