Thread: Harville Exacta
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Old 31st May 2011, 10:27 PM
moeee moeee is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 5,359
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I been playing with My Ratings in the MCSim.
They are figures based on expected finish times for each animal.
The Figures are up around the 90 Mark.
For the Standard Deviation I have been putting my own figure, and it seems to run best when I make it 3.
Thats a 3 for all animals, regardless of how consistent or not the animals actually are.

What annoys me is that some animals turn up as having a lesser chance of running 2nd than they do 1st and 3rd.
It shouldn't be possible that an animal can be 20% Chance of Winning 14% Chance of running second, and 18% Chance of running 3rd.

I'm running the Sim 20,000 times.
Its done by Kennedy91210.

I'm wondering if it might be better if I can store all 20,000 Exacta results in a loop thingo - You know what I mean.
Then just divide the Number of times each permutation occurred into the 20,000 to get the Odds.
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