5th June 2011, 09:13 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
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I believe following prices can be just as accurate as following form .
Just look at the form at most of those winners , half of them have terrible form , especially the outsiders.
So price would have to be just as good an option.
The prices tell their own story, in relation to their price to percentage chance.
e.g. a $2.00 fav would have approx 42.20% chance of winning if betting into say a 118.5% market as per TABs
It is worked out by converting its price into a percentage.
1 divided by $2.00 click % key = 50%
This 50% is divided by 118.5 then click % key. = 42.20% chance of winning.
If market was say 103% like Betfair
50% divide by 103. click % key = 48.55% chance of winning
If market was 100%
Then it would be a 50% chance of winning.
It all depends if your the type of punter that can sinc into that type of thing.
Another idea is get a program to create the selections for you based pruly on the prices & ranking of the runners.
Example.
Use a Bot to select Lay bets or Win bets , say 2nd or 3rd or 5th favs in a particular price range, in Sim mode.
Then bet the dead opposite, it produces with real money .
How many times have you seen where say the 2nd Fav gets rolled all day long , yet when you go to Lay them to lose , they win all day ?
This wild idea has shown to work well in the majority of sessions, when used accordingly.
Another example.
Target races where the Fav is <=2.00
Then Lay Bet the 2nd fav to fall over.
Stop betting for the day if we get bit 3 times , at any time on the day, its not going to be our day.
Quit often , these 2nd Favs will get rolled all day long.
Make sure you are betting where the win market is <=103% on Betfair, otherwise the prices shown could be distorted somewhat & therefore less accurate.
Try it out for yourself, it works so long as you stop if bit 3 times on any given day.
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Cheers.
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