LOMACA.

It's good to see you have a Life outside of gambling , unlike someone I know quite well

OVERLAYS.
In Roulette, I can work out the Odds for EVERY outcome of EVERY Permutation, as can you Lomaca , as can the Casino, so in this case , we ALL know the Odds and the OVERLAY in everyones mind is exactly the same.And we never get it and never do the casino offer it.
We all use the same Formula to arrive at the Odds.

Another Example is Texas Holdem.
I like watching this Game on Television, and if you have watched it, then you will have noticed that they display the Percentage Chance of each hand winning during the game.
These are Mathematically calculated Chances , that are accurate and exact.
They are exact because they can be calculted by precise Mathematical Formula.

If you are happy and agree with up to now, lets get to Greyhound Racing.

Yes what we do is rank the runners according to OUR ideas like you say , and set Prices according to those ideas.
But when you say there is very little these Prices have with Reality, that is proveable simply wrong.
Its very obvious that My Ranking Order finds more Winners at the top of My Rankings than at the bottom.
That means that MY IDEAS are better than throwing darts, or pulling marbles out of a barrel.
The EXACT Prices I come up with will never be the Exact Odds for each animal in the race, but they will be MUCH more accurate than throwing darts.
And if you Lomaca were to Frame a Market, I'm sure YOUR Ideas will translate into something also more accurate than simply throwing darts.
And YOUR EXACT Prices also will never be the Exact Odds fer each animal in the race , but they will be much more accurate than throwing darts.
And I would suggest that as you gain more experience and information about Factors that influence the running of a Greyhound Race, then your Markets will become EVEN MORE accurate than throwing darts.

BUT.
YOUR Prices will NEVER EVER , be the same as MY Prices.NEVER EVER.
And thats because there is NO EXACT Formula to calculate the Chances as there is in Card Games or Roulette.

And you will have #1 at $3 and I will have #1 at $4
We can't both be right on this occasion.
Its MUCH MORE likely that we are BOTH Wrong, BUT , one of us is less wrong than the other.

If you and I were to test our Methods against one another, by wagering against one another, then after an appropriate sample of Races, the Bottom Line would reveal who of us has Methods that are less wrong.
And in the same way, we can test OUR Methods against BETFAIR or SUPERTAB , to see if we are less wrong than what they are.

Lomaca said "How you work out if a dog is an overlay or not is solely dependent on your S/R and average prices you get on your first second or third etc. selections! Nothing else."
My thoughts here are about the Strike Rate.
The thing is Lomaca , there will be a Number of strike rates for me.
The strike rate for my top selection.
The strike rate for my second selection
And for my 3rd and so on.
Perhaps like you suggested Lomaca, up to 3rd would be enough, but for insight, it wouldn't hurt todatabasr every selection.
This is very thought provoking and deep and something that is missing in my studies and is probably the reason I am losing.
I need to go over this a lot more and will get back to you later.

Thanks very much for the post Lomaca.
I really need someone to assist me , and I really need to go over profferred advice instead of rejecting it as something I've pondered on in a previous life and rejected it.
There is simply nothing worse than having erroneous beliefs holding back intelligent people from achieving what they are capable of.