11th June 2011, 06:33 PM
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Suspended
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 5,359
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by woof43
here is an example 1= fav. the other numbers are tote rankings
1/all/8 =-77%
1/all/678 = -30%
its not until you drop off those longer ranked dogs do you start to head into positive territory.
Then for the 2nd position you find the negative expectations are in dogs ranked 4,5,and 6 in the betting, so your going to play either end for 2nd.
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Are these conclusions determined by Mathematical Laws , or are they observed situations caused by erroneous behaviour by Joe Public , brought on by poor knowledge of Mathematics as demonstrated by many Members of Many Forums.
I figure the latter.
My own method would be more based around how I handicapped the Race.
Not in my wildest dreams would I consider placing My 2 Worst animals in 2nd position in my exotics.
That simply negates the hard work involved in the study. |