I have been away for most of the past month,but I have downloaded all the results from Betfair in an to attempt to get a handle on laying.

To my surprise, I noticed the 1st and 2nd favourites made a profit during June (Backing).

I know there is a major flaw in going down that path, as due to the money movement at the end, the favourites will change, and hence you would never be able to achieve the same results.

However, this flaw may also provide an opportunity - and hence my THEORY ...

If a snap shot was taken at say 25 seconds before close and again at say 2 seconds before close, over a period of time we should have 3 groups:

- Those that firm in price
- Those that remain the same
- Those that drift in the market.

My theory is that the ones who firm in that time frame should be candidates for a back and those that drift should be a candidate for a lay.

Tomorrow I aim to write a small routine to capturing this data, so any comments, input, suggestions etc would be appreciated.

I will progressively post the findings through out July.

However, I must admit it all sounds too simple! ... but it is a Theory!