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30th June 2011, 06:08 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 589
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Barny
After the handcapper has done his work, he is of the belief that every horse in the race has an equal chance of winning. Joe Public thinks the handicapper is wrong in this summize and Joe Public is correct.
The more money that is placed on a horse the higher the strike rate. This flows from a 82% strike rate at $1.20 to less than 30% at $4 + and less than 25% at $5. This is the greatest variable in the strike rate. The only other significant factor is field size. Less than 9 runners the favs strike rate increases. The more runners over 12 = a falling strike rate.
The only profitable way to win is not to find a winner but to find the winners with value. Beton
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