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Old 16th March 2004, 10:13 PM
michaelv michaelv is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 43
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It just may not be worth it, Michael, as I decided to go back over the unitab ratings from Mar 6th till TODAY (11 days) and came up with the following stats:

Notes:
* I used the unitab divi (for ease of research).

* I also looked at ALL the 100 raters (regardless of prepost price - but it looked like most would've been the prepost fav or very close to it anyway with only a couple of exceptions).

* I recorded the 'gaps' as well (from 1 above).

* I ignored meetings that were slow or heavy.

* I ignored races of less than 5 runners as there's NO place pool

* I ignored races without a 100 rater in the field.

* I ignored races where there were 2 or more 100 raters listed.

ALL 'GAPS'
==========
Total Win Bets : 56
Total Wins : 23 (41%)
Total return on Win: 61.16 units (but included 1 winner at $11.10)

Total PLace Bets: 56
Total wins/2nds: 38 (67.9%) - no third divi
Total return on Place: 60.08 (but included $4.40 for the $11.10 winner above)

Gap of 1 & 2 only
=================
Total Win Bets : 20
Total Wins : 10 (50%)
Total return on Win: 35.3 units (but included 1 winner at $11.10)

Total PLace Bets: 20
Total wins/2nds: 16 (80%) - no third divi
Total return on Place: 29.30(but included $4.40 for the $11.10 winner above)

Gap of 3 plus
=============
Total Win Bets : 36
Total Wins : 13 (36.11%)
Total return on Win: 25.86 units

Total PLace Bets: 36
Total wins/2nds: 22 (61.11%) - no third divi
Total return on Place: 30.78

Based on this I don't think they are worth following as the only saviours were 1 $11.00 winner plus 2 other winners of $5.50 and $4.90 which leaves the rest as giving pretty poor returns. Note that ALL of these were in the 1&2 gap races so the other group missed out completely on the bigger divis.

I then looked at the horses with a placing at the last start and things got even worse with only 5 wins from 17 bets (returning 11.3 units) and 12 placings (which returned 16 units).

Hope this saves you a lot of 'non-worthwhile' extra work and I apologise for bringing it up in the first place.


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