G'day everyone,

To add to what others have said...

The position a horse is likely to settle in a field can be estimated by looking at previous in run positions. However you need to keep the following points in mind:

* Distance is a factor. A horse that races on the pace over 1400m won't necessarily have the early speed to race on the pace over 1200m.

* Barriers are an important factor (especially when combined with distance). Some horses only have enough speed to race handy when drawn towards the inside. If drawn wide they don't have enough speed to cross others going forward and they are likely to race further back i.e. midfield.

In terms of determining the early pace of the race, the following things are worth keeping in mind:

1. Generally speaking, the more lead and handy runners the faster the pace will be.

2. Distance to the first turn can determine how urgent jockeys are to obtain their preferred position. A short run to the turn means that jockeys on go forward horses will be keen to get there quickly to save being caught wide.

3. The type of horses drawn wide largely influence the speed of the race. If the widest drawn runners are go forward types there is likely to be pressure from them going fast enough to cross, while inside drawn runners kick up to maintain their position. The result is a faster early pace. If the wide drawn runners are all backmarkers then there will be little pressure from the outside and better drawn horses can comfortably start and take up their position without any pressure, creating a slower early pace.

Hope that helps.



[ This Message was edited by: osulldj on 2004-03-18 08:48 ]