30th July 2011, 12:12 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,415
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I would say this variance to the expected came about because you are laying not the field, but a portion of it. Therefore you are subjected to greater degrees of highs and lows and dependant on certain runners losing rather than the market corrections.
I lay the entire field and use 2.5% of bank due to massive fluctuations in profit/loss.
Without a doubt 90% of my profit/loss on any day comes from higher or lower than expected odds on favourites saluting for the day.
In your case, not 100% sure, but taking a wild stab, you are relying on a group of horses rather than overall odds on faves.
I'm also laying UK and AUS races using the same principles.
I've found that almost always, when I have a much better or much worse than expected result, it turns around the next day, if not the day after.
My approach is to stake to expectation and it's been working extremely well to date.
E.G.
Day 1 5 units profit to $100 liability
Day 2 6 units profit to $100 liability
Day 3 28 units profit to $100 liability
Day 4 16 units loss to $50 liability****
Day 5 8 units loss to $100 liability
Day 6 6 units profit to $100 liability
Day 7 4 units profit to $100 liability
So I halve the liability for the next day after a big win and double it the next day after a big loss.
But bear in mind, I'm using only 2.5% of bank to start with, @ 10% of bank, it could wipe you out quite quickly.
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