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Originally Posted by lomaca
However while looking at the printout I noticed that there is sometimes a huge difference between the actual starting price and the rated price.
Completely the reverse at times by as much as a factor of 3.
Like rated @$10, starting and winning @$3.00 or the other way around.
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This is an interesting point.
When considering the old chestnut of the rated price plus so much percent is overs, I have found the direct opposite to be true.
The above statement assumes that the ratings are accurate and take into account the money that "goes on" is no smarter than the ratings.
I've found this not to be the case.
A quick and dirty review of the last 102 horses that opened on track at less than $2.05 demonstrates.
Backing them all less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a loss of 1.45 units.
Backing the drifters less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a loss of 8.92 units.
Backing the firmers less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a
profit of 7.47 units.
If I expand the opening price to $3.00 or less, it becomes more interesting.
Backing them all less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a
profit of 22.09 units.
Backing the drifters less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a
profit of 12.21 units.
Backing the firmers less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a
profit of 9.88 units.
So based on the above information, backing the firmers at $2.00 or less opening price and all at $2.05 to $3.00 we get this...
$ 7.47
$23.54
$31.01 units profit from 398 bets, or 7.79% POT based simply on price.
This is from the last 7 Saturday meetings only.