Howdy critters,

I thought I'd wade in with my 2c worth.

For starters, any form that is more than 12mths. old in any horse is pretty much worthless info and meaningless stats, so probably the only stats. worth anything much are those last 12 mths., but only for use over the next 12mths. while most of the horses they were based on are still in the game.

How a system performs over the next 5yrs. will have little relationship to how it performed over the last 5yrs. because all the horses will be newbies.

% variables on a system that won 10/20% over the past 5yrs. will have swings large enough to make even a 10yr. average back-fitted performance, all but next to meaningless as far as it's performance over the next 12mths. goes.

It is worth remembering that this game is 70% [approx] a game of chance that is subject to wild swings of our ability to predict outcomes from available variables.

A back-fitted system result that shows say 15% POT over the last 5yrs. may make 15% [or more] over the next 5yrs., loose 15% [or more], but how it performs over the next 12months [ most important ] could be anyones guess.

The fact that anyone can approach a system that has shown a profit over the last year/5yrs. anyway, with some sort of smug glow of security [ radiating downward toward the hand that removes the wallet, that will then remove the notes that are going to do a magic trick of multiplying themselves based on the secure 'wisdom' gleaned from shonky maths applied to shonky facts ], that they are safe from a financial mauling, beggars belief !!!

Cheers.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-03-22 07:22 ]