23rd March 2004, 09:43 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,426
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Quote:
On 2004-03-22 19:08, kenchar wrote:
Crash,
We've had our differences, but on this I have to totally agree with you.
Every race is different depending on circumstances.
How can I back horses FOR A PLACE that have never been out of a place at the distance, never been out of a place at the track, and is down in in class from their last start, and the same jockey has ridden it at it's last 5 or so starts, and they run a shocker.
The reason is that this is horse racing and there is ALWAYS the unforseen.
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Hi kenchar,
I think that the difference is the expectation of what stats will do.
Stats will not predict the outcome of Race 1 at Flemington with any accuracy, although they might point to value.
As you say, every horse is independant, as is every race, condition jockey and result etc.
However, I can say with some accuracy, that data can predict the OVERALL strike rate or profit given enough bets.
For example, if one in three households have a computer, that's 33% strike rate - this does not mean that if I walk into three households one of them MUST have a computer, it means that if I walk into 100 houses, roughly 33 will have one.
Forgive the crude analogy.
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