I can explain why moeee gets 1.8% instead of 18.1%.

He has correctly calculated the value for 3 particular wins out of 5 (eg WWWLL) only but this can occur in 10 possible ways WWWLL or LWWWL or LLWWW or WLWLW or LWWLW etc so his result must be multiplied by 10 to get the correct 18.1% for any three wins from 5 trials.

All system enthusiasts should come to grips with the binomial theorem of probability as it is a invaluable tool.

gunny