Dale
Hi
Strike rate at any price is still a negative return. I have a sample of 43000+ races that are correlated to price. The included fields are ranking, distance, number of runners, going and the weather. All related to the fav SP in 10 cent increments. The general averages hold for the averages that are bandied around. When you start being specific then you can increase the strike rate and the return. But you greatly reduce the available races. The short fav in a group 1 with 10 runners on a good track in fine weather at 1600+ has a better strike rate than average. It was interesting to see how many shorties fall in maidens. When you multiply the odds by the strike rate it is always a negative.
The areas that I saw an advantage was betting the shorts in top class races if you can get the best odds. Laying in the lower classes. Overall laying the lot. The latter I only see an advantage to the fav = or < $3 and only up to a max $30 and =/+ 9 runners.
One other anomaly was the third fav when the first fav was short. You still need $6+ to come out in front. It is an area that may bear looking at. Beton