I admit that I am firing from the hip here but a simple setting me straight will shut me up. I am laying the field to <$30 if the fav is<$4. One thing I am noticing is the number of races that I don't get on because the fav is >$4.

My research is tote based not Betfair. 26.5% of races on the tote have the fav>$3.50. Their strike rate is from 26.2% at $3.60 in a straight progression to 11.7% at $5.50. In each case the strike rate times the return is poor. 80-90% of outlay.

What I am noticing is that there seems to be a higher rate of races >$4 than the tote figures. Today 13 from 41 races already run have been >$4 Far in excess of the tote. It gets worst in UK. A simple calc says that this is close to break even.

Has any one got a breakdown of the strike rate and return of +$4 betfair favs?
It may be prudent to trial. Beton